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NAC Breda vs Heerenveen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:45

NAC Breda

PPG 1.06 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heerenveen

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-18.6%0-27.6%0-34.5%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.8%1-29.6%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.8%2-16.7%2-26.0%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.5%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 40.3% 2.48 -18.9%

Draw 27.0% 26.0% 3.85 +2.4%

Away win 45.4% 40.3% 2.48 +12.6%

Over 2.5 59.3% 69.4% 1.44 -14.6%

Over 3.5 35.8% 47.6% 2.10 -24.8%

BTTS 58.8% 72.5% 1.38 -18.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NAC Breda1.3

Heerenveen1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NAC BREDA · PPG 1.06

HEERENVEEN · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

NAC Breda (H) 27.6%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -18.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +2.4%

Heerenveen (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

NAC Breda face Heerenveen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NAC Breda a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Heerenveen 45%, so Heerenveen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for NAC Breda and 1.8 for Heerenveen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NAC Breda are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.31 for Heerenveen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.6%.

NAC Breda vs Heerenveen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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