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Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:45

Go Ahead Eagles

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

PSV Eindhoven

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 70% chance

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.5%0-25.4%0-34.3%0-4+4.5%1 1-03.0%1-17.1%1-28.5%1-36.8%1-4+7.1%2 2-02.4%2-15.7%2-26.7%2-35.4%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.3%3-13.0%3-23.6%3-32.8%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 23.3% 4.30 +5.5%

Draw 23.2% 21.5% 4.65 +4.7%

Away win 51.4% 62.1% 1.61 -17.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 76.9% 1.30 -19.8%

Over 3.5 56.1% 55.6% 1.80 +1.0%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.0%

A 51% / xG 1.6-2.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.5%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Go Ahead Eagles1.6

PSV Eindhoven2.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GO AHEAD EAGLES · PPG 1.56

PSV EINDHOVEN · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

70%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Go Ahead Eagles (H) 25.4%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +5.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +4.7%

PSV Eindhoven (A) 51.4%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Go Ahead Eagles face PSV Eindhoven in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Go Ahead Eagles a 25% chance, the draw 23% and PSV Eindhoven 51%, so PSV Eindhoven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Go Ahead Eagles and 2.4 for PSV Eindhoven (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Go Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 2.50 for PSV Eindhoven. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 1-4.

Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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