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Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:45

Fortuna Sittard

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

PEC Zwolle

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.4%0-22.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.1%1-17.8%1-25.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.4%3-16.7%3-25.1%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.5%4+-25.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 48.1% 2.08 +3.8%

Draw 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Away win 25.4% 32.8% 3.05 -13.5%

Over 2.5 61.7% 66.7% 1.50 -7.4%

Over 3.5 52.6% 44.4% 2.25 +18.4%

BTTS 62.7% 69.4% 1.44 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.7%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortuna Sittard2.3

PEC Zwolle1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTUNA SITTARD · PPG 1.38

PEC ZWOLLE · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs P(Home)=49.9%

Win probability 1X2

Fortuna Sittard (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +3.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.4%

PEC Zwolle (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortuna Sittard face PEC Zwolle in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortuna Sittard a 50% chance, the draw 25% and PEC Zwolle 25%, so Fortuna Sittard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.5 for PEC Zwolle (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.56 for PEC Zwolle. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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