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Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:45

Feyenoord

PPG 2.19 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

AZ Alkmaar

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.9%0-22.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.2%1-18.6%1-25.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.9%3-16.8%3-24.7%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.2%4+-24.2%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 55.6% 1.80 -11.3%

Draw 25.6% 24.4% 4.10 +3.0%

Away win 25.1% 27.0% 3.70 -4.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 71.4% 1.40 -13.6%

Over 3.5 47.5% 50.0% 2.00 -5.0%

BTTS 59.1% 72.5% 1.38 -18.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.1%

H 49% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Feyenoord2.2

AZ Alkmaar1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FEYENOORD · PPG 2.19

AZ ALKMAAR · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Feyenoord (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -11.3%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.0%

AZ Alkmaar (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Feyenoord face AZ Alkmaar in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Feyenoord a 49% chance, the draw 26% and AZ Alkmaar 25%, so Feyenoord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Feyenoord and 1.4 for AZ Alkmaar (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Feyenoord are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.25 for AZ Alkmaar. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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