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FC Twente vs Sparta Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:45

FC Twente

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sparta

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.9%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.4%1-19.9%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.7%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.3%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 74.6% 1.34 -31.7%

Draw 26.4% 18.9% 5.30 +23.9%

Away win 22.6% 13.5% 7.40 +40.3%

Over 2.5 59.3% 72.5% 1.38 -18.2%

Over 3.5 34.6% 50.0% 2.00 -30.8%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Twente2.0

Sparta1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TWENTE · PPG 1.81

SPARTA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

FC Twente (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -31.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +23.9%

Sparta (A) 22.6%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +40.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Twente face Sparta in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Twente a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Sparta 23%, so FC Twente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FC Twente and 1.0 for Sparta (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Twente are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.25 for Sparta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 4-0.

FC Twente vs Sparta Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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