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FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:45

FC Groningen

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

NEC Nijmegen

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 69% chance

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.8%0-25.3%0-33.3%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.1%1-19.3%1-28.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.2%3-14.1%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 36.4% 2.75 -3.5%

Draw 24.9% 25.6% 3.90 -1.7%

Away win 40.0% 45.0% 2.22 -11.2%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.4% 1.44 -11.2%

Over 3.5 45.6% 47.6% 2.10 -4.2%

BTTS 62.4% 72.5% 1.38 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.4%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1✓ 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Groningen1.6

NEC Nijmegen1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 45.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC GRONINGEN · PPG 1.38

NEC NIJMEGEN · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.38) vs Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

FC Groningen (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -3.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.7%

NEC Nijmegen (A) 40.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Groningen face NEC Nijmegen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Groningen a 35% chance, the draw 25% and NEC Nijmegen 40%, so NEC Nijmegen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Groningen and 1.8 for NEC Nijmegen (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Groningen are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.69 for NEC Nijmegen. This match finished 2-1.

FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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