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Excelsior vs FC Volendam Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:45

Excelsior

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Volendam

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.9%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.4%1-112.1%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.5%3-14.8%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 57.1% 1.75 -16.4%

Draw 26.4% 25.6% 3.90 +1.8%

Away win 25.7% 24.4% 4.10 +3.2%

Over 2.5 52.8% 63.7% 1.57 -17.1%

Over 3.5 26.4% 41.7% 2.40 -22.0%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excelsior1.5

FC Volendam1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCELSIOR · PPG 1.06

FC VOLENDAM · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Excelsior (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -16.4%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.8%

FC Volendam (A) 25.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excelsior face FC Volendam in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excelsior a 48% chance, the draw 26% and FC Volendam 26%, so Excelsior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Excelsior and 1.1 for FC Volendam (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excelsior are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.50 for FC Volendam. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Excelsior vs FC Volendam Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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