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Sion vs Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group · Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:30

Sion

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Thun

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.8%0-26.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.7%1-112.1%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-18.3%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.7%3-13.8%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 57.1% 1.75 -34.9%

Draw 26.4% 25.0% 4.00 +3.4%

Away win 36.4% 24.4% 4.10 +49.2%

Over 2.5 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Over 3.5 29.9% 42.6% 2.35 -17.8%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.3%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sion1.4

Thun1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SION · PPG 1.76

THUN · PPG 2.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

63%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.76) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.12)

Win probability 1X2

Sion (H) 37.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -34.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.4%

Thun (A) 36.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +49.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sion face Thun in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sion a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Thun 36%, so Sion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sion and 1.4 for Thun (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sion are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 2.12 for Thun. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Sion vs Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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