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BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group · Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:30

BSC Young Boys

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Basel

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 71% chance

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.4%0-23.6%0-32.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.3%1-18.7%1-27.1%1-33.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.5%3-15.7%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.4%4+-23.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 52.6% 1.90 -14.3%

Draw 25.3% 24.4% 4.10 +2.2%

Away win 29.6% 29.9% 3.35 -0.5%

Over 2.5 61.7% 73.5% 1.36 -16.1%

Over 3.5 48.9% 52.6% 1.90 -7.1%

BTTS 62.5% 75.2% 1.33 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BSC Young Boys2.0

FC Basel1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BSC YOUNG BOYS · PPG 1.65

FC BASEL · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.65), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

BSC Young Boys (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -14.3%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +2.2%

FC Basel (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

BSC Young Boys face FC Basel in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BSC Young Boys a 45% chance, the draw 25% and FC Basel 30%, so BSC Young Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for BSC Young Boys and 1.6 for FC Basel (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.53 for FC Basel. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 3-0.

BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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