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Akhmat Grozny vs Makhachkala Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:15

Akhmat Grozny

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Makhachkala

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-18.8%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.4%1-111.8%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-18.0%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.6%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 39.1% 2.56 +27.5%

Draw 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

Away win 22.1% 32.1% 3.12 -18.6%

Over 2.5 38.0% 40.3% 2.48 -5.8%

Over 3.5 14.2% 21.5% 4.65 -20.4%

BTTS 48.1% 50.3% 1.99 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.1%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.4%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1✓ 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akhmat Grozny1.3

Makhachkala0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AKHMAT GROZNY · PPG 1.86

MAKHACHKALA · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=49.8%

Win probability 1X2

Akhmat Grozny (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +27.5%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Makhachkala (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akhmat Grozny face Makhachkala in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akhmat Grozny a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Makhachkala 22%, so Akhmat Grozny are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Akhmat Grozny and 0.6 for Makhachkala (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akhmat Grozny are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.36 for Makhachkala. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Akhmat Grozny vs Makhachkala Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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