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Tychy vs Ruch Chorzow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:30

Tychy

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ruch Chorzow

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.5%0-27.1%0-34.5%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.3%1-110.0%1-29.5%1-36.0%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.5%2-16.7%2-26.3%2-34.0%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.6%3-13.0%3-22.8%3-31.8%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.9%

Away win 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Over 2.5 60.2% 58.8% 1.70 +2.3%

Over 3.5 40.3% 38.2% 2.62 +5.6%

BTTS 58.8% 61.7% 1.62 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tychy1.3

Ruch Chorzow1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TYCHY · PPG 0.67

RUCH CHORZOW · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Tychy (H) 27.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.9%

Ruch Chorzow (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tychy face Ruch Chorzow in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tychy a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Ruch Chorzow 45%, so Ruch Chorzow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tychy and 1.9 for Ruch Chorzow (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tychy are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.14 for Ruch Chorzow. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 0-4.

Tychy vs Ruch Chorzow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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