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Lugano vs St. Gallen Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Lugano

PPG 2.12 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

St. Gallen

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.8%0-25.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.2%1-111.6%1-28.2%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 46.5% 2.15 -18.9%

Draw 26.1% 27.0% 3.70 -2.1%

Away win 36.2% 33.3% 3.00 +8.6%

Over 2.5 59.3% 63.7% 1.57 -6.9%

Over 3.5 32.8% 41.7% 2.40 -21.3%

BTTS 58.8% 67.6% 1.48 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2✓ 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano1.5

St. Gallen1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO · PPG 2.12

ST. GALLEN · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.12) > Away GOOD (1.82)

Win probability 1X2

Lugano (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -18.9%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.1%

St. Gallen (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano face St. Gallen in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano a 38% chance, the draw 26% and St. Gallen 36%, so Lugano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lugano and 1.4 for St. Gallen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.82 for St. Gallen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Lugano vs St. Gallen Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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