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Zenit vs PFC Sochi Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Zenit

PPG 2.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

PFC Sochi

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLD

// Model verdict

Home 81% chance

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-12.5%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.5%1-16.3%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-18.0%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.5%3-16.9%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.7%4+-18.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 86.2% 1.16 -21.3%

Draw 22.8% 12.0% 8.30 +53.5%

Away win 9.4% 5.4% 18.50 +44.3%

Over 2.5 60.1% 67.1% 1.49 -10.4%

Over 3.5 37.6% 42.0% 2.38 -10.5%

BTTS 48.2% 42.4% 2.36 +13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.2%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 3–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1✓ 8.0%

#5 4–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zenit2.6

PFC Sochi0.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZENIT · PPG 2.71

PFC SOCHI · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

81%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.71), Away POOR (0.71) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Zenit (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.16 · IMPLIED 86.2% EV -21.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 8.30 · IMPLIED 12.0% EV +53.5%

PFC Sochi (A) 9.4%

ODDS 18.50 · IMPLIED 5.4% EV +44.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zenit face PFC Sochi in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zenit a 68% chance, the draw 23% and PFC Sochi 9%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Zenit and 0.6 for PFC Sochi (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zenit are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.71 for PFC Sochi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +53.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Zenit vs PFC Sochi Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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