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Polonia Warszaw vs Gornik Leczna Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 10:00

Polonia Warszaw

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gornik Leczna

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.5%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.0%1-110.2%1-26.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.7%3-16.0%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 63.7% 1.57 -22.6%

Draw 25.6% 26.3% 3.80 -1.6%

Away win 25.1% 21.7% 4.60 +9.3%

Over 2.5 60.2% 61.7% 1.62 -2.5%

Over 3.5 38.7% 40.0% 2.50 -3.3%

BTTS 58.8% 61.7% 1.62 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Warszaw1.9

Gornik Leczna1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA WARSZAW · PPG 1.40

GORNIK LECZNA · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Warszaw (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -22.6%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.6%

Gornik Leczna (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Warszaw face Gornik Leczna in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Warszaw a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Gornik Leczna 25%, so Polonia Warszaw are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Polonia Warszaw and 1.3 for Gornik Leczna (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Warszaw are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.73 for Gornik Leczna. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Polonia Warszaw vs Gornik Leczna Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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