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Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 09:30

Orenburg

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Krylya Sovetov

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.5%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.5%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.3%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 50.0% 2.00 -5.4%

Draw 27.2% 28.2% 3.54 -2.2%

Away win 25.5% 25.1% 3.98 +0.9%

Over 2.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 24.0% 32.9% 3.04 -16.2%

BTTS 52.3% 58.1% 1.72 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0✓ 12.1%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orenburg1.5

Krylya Sovetov1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENBURG · PPG 1.21

KRYLYA SOVETOV · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.21) vs P(Home)=47.3%

Win probability 1X2

Orenburg (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -5.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.54 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.2%

Krylya Sovetov (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.98 · IMPLIED 25.1% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orenburg face Krylya Sovetov in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orenburg a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Krylya Sovetov 26%, so Orenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Orenburg and 1.0 for Krylya Sovetov (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orenburg are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.36 for Krylya Sovetov. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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