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Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 09:30

Orenburg

PPG 1.21 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Krylya Sovetov

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.5%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.5%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.3%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 50.0% 2.00 -5.4%

Draw 27.2% 28.2% 3.54 -2.2%

Away win 25.5% 25.1% 3.98 +0.9%

Over 2.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 24.0% 32.9% 3.04 -16.2%

BTTS 52.3% 58.1% 1.72 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0✓ 12.1%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orenburg1.5

Krylya Sovetov1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENBURG · PPG 1.21

KRYLYA SOVETOV · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.21) vs P(Home)=47.3%

Win probability 1X2

Orenburg (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -5.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.54 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.2%

Krylya Sovetov (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.98 · IMPLIED 25.1% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orenburg face Krylya Sovetov in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orenburg a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Krylya Sovetov 26%, so Orenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Orenburg and 1.0 for Krylya Sovetov (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orenburg are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.36 for Krylya Sovetov. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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