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Luzern vs Servette Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group · Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30

Luzern

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Servette

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.7%0-22.7%0-31.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-03.2%1-16.3%1-26.3%1-34.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.6%2-17.2%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.8%3-15.5%3-25.5%3-33.6%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-15.4%4+-25.4%4+-33.6%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 46.5% 2.15 -5.6%

Draw 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

Away win 33.5% 33.9% 2.95 -1.2%

Over 2.5 69.8% 66.7% 1.50 +4.7%

Over 3.5 61.9% 45.5% 2.20 +36.2%

BTTS 66.7% 71.4% 1.40 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob66.7%

H 44% / xG 2.3-2.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.3%

#2 2–1 7.2%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luzern2.3

Servette2.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 61.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LUZERN · PPG 1.06

SERVETTE · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Luzern (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -5.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.2%

Servette (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luzern face Servette in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luzern a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Servette 34%, so Luzern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Luzern and 2.0 for Servette (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luzern are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.24 for Servette. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.2%. This match finished 3-3.

Luzern vs Servette Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Super League Predictions