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Podbrezova vs S. Bratislava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:00

Podbrezova

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

S. Bratislava

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.9%0-26.7%0-34.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.0%1-19.7%1-29.3%1-36.0%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.5%2-16.7%2-26.5%2-34.2%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.6%3-13.1%3-23.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

Draw 26.5% 27.8% 3.60 -2.8%

Away win 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Over 2.5 60.2% 63.7% 1.57 -5.5%

Over 3.5 42.7% 41.7% 2.40 +2.5%

BTTS 58.8% 67.6% 1.48 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2✓ 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Podbrezova1.4

S. Bratislava1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PODBREZOVA · PPG 1.47

S. BRATISLAVA · PPG 2.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs Home AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Podbrezova (H) 28.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.9%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.8%

S. Bratislava (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Podbrezova face S. Bratislava in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Podbrezova a 29% chance, the draw 27% and S. Bratislava 45%, so S. Bratislava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Podbrezova and 1.9 for S. Bratislava (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Podbrezova are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 2.27 for S. Bratislava. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Podbrezova vs S. Bratislava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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