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Znicz Pruszkow vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:30

Znicz Pruszkow

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-17.8%0-27.4%0-34.7%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.3%1-110.1%1-29.6%1-36.1%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.4%2-16.5%2-26.2%2-33.9%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.7%3-31.7%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 41.7% 2.40 -20.3%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 45.4% 38.2% 2.62 +18.9%

Over 2.5 60.2% 57.8% 1.73 +4.2%

Over 3.5 39.6% 36.4% 2.75 +8.9%

BTTS 58.8% 63.7% 1.57 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Znicz Pruszkow1.3

Polonia Bytom1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZNICZ PRUSZKOW · PPG 0.60

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.13) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Znicz Pruszkow (H) 27.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -20.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Polonia Bytom (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Znicz Pruszkow face Polonia Bytom in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Znicz Pruszkow a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Polonia Bytom 45%, so Polonia Bytom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Znicz Pruszkow and 1.9 for Polonia Bytom (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Znicz Pruszkow are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.13 for Polonia Bytom. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 1-4.

Znicz Pruszkow vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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