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Wieczysta K. vs Miedz Legnica Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:30

Wieczysta K.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Miedz Legnica

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.3%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.8%1-17.8%1-25.3%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.2%3-24.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-17.5%4+-25.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 25.5% 37.0% 2.70 -18.7%

Over 2.5 61.7% 66.7% 1.50 -7.4%

Over 3.5 50.9% 45.5% 2.20 +12.0%

BTTS 60.3% 69.4% 1.44 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 50% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wieczysta K.2.4

Miedz Legnica1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WIECZYSTA K. · PPG 1.67

MIEDZ LEGNICA · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Wieczysta K. (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +10.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Miedz Legnica (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wieczysta K. face Miedz Legnica in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wieczysta K. a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Miedz Legnica 26%, so Wieczysta K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Wieczysta K. and 1.4 for Miedz Legnica (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wieczysta K. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.94 for Miedz Legnica. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Wieczysta K. vs Miedz Legnica Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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