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Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolo Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:30

Stal Mielec

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Puszcza Niepolo

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.8%0-27.0%0-33.7%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.2%1-111.5%1-29.1%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-17.5%2-26.0%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.2%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 48.8% 2.05 -30.1%

Draw 25.3% 31.3% 3.20 -11.4%

Away win 40.7% 31.3% 3.20 +30.2%

Over 2.5 59.3% 55.6% 1.80 +6.7%

Over 3.5 33.0% 33.3% 3.00 -1.0%

BTTS 58.8% 61.7% 1.62 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.8%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Mielec1.3

Puszcza Niepolo1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL MIELEC · PPG 1.00

PUSZCZA NIEPOLO · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Stal Mielec (H) 34.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -30.1%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.4%

Puszcza Niepolo (A) 40.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Mielec face Puszcza Niepolo in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Mielec a 34% chance, the draw 25% and Puszcza Niepolo 41%, so Puszcza Niepolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Stal Mielec and 1.6 for Puszcza Niepolo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Mielec are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Puszcza Niepolo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolo Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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