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Winterthur vs Lausanne Sport Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:00

Winterthur

PPG 0.65 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lausanne Sport

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.9%0-26.2%0-34.3%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.2%1-18.7%1-29.1%1-36.4%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.1%2-16.4%2-26.7%2-34.7%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.5%3-13.1%3-23.3%3-32.3%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 26.3% 3.80 +2.9%

Draw 27.0% 25.0% 4.00 +4.8%

Away win 45.4% 55.6% 1.80 -18.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.0% 1.45 -10.5%

Over 3.5 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

BTTS 61.8% 70.4% 1.42 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob61.8%

A 45% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 2–1✓ 6.4%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Winterthur1.5

Lausanne Sport2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WINTERTHUR · PPG 0.65

LAUSANNE SPORT · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.65) vs Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Winterthur (H) 27.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +2.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.8%

Lausanne Sport (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Winterthur face Lausanne Sport in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Winterthur a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Lausanne Sport 45%, so Lausanne Sport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Winterthur and 2.1 for Lausanne Sport (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Winterthur are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 1.12 for Lausanne Sport. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Winterthur vs Lausanne Sport Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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