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Kitzbuhel vs Schwaz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 28 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:00

Kitzbuhel

PPG 1.42 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Schwaz

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.42), Away GOOD (1.62)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.0%0-27.0%0-33.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.5%1-111.6%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.5%2-25.9%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.3%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 40.4% — — —

Over 2.5 54.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.0% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.8%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kitzbuhel1.3

Schwaz1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KITZBUHEL · PPG 1.42

SCHWAZ · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.42), Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Kitzbuhel (H) 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Schwaz (A) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kitzbuhel face Schwaz in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kitzbuhel a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Schwaz 40%, so Schwaz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kitzbuhel and 1.6 for Schwaz (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kitzbuhel are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.62 for Schwaz. This match finished 2-0.

Kitzbuhel vs Schwaz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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