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Krylya Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Krylya Sovetov

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CSKA Moscow

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.5%0-27.4%0-33.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.6%1-111.8%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.7%2-17.3%2-25.7%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 24.4% 4.10 +24.6%

Draw 25.0% 26.3% 3.80 -5.0%

Away win 44.6% 52.6% 1.90 -15.3%

Over 2.5 52.8% 53.5% 1.87 -1.3%

Over 3.5 30.5% 32.9% 3.04 -7.3%

BTTS 55.9% 58.1% 1.72 -3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.9%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 0–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 1–0 7.6%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krylya Sovetov1.2

CSKA Moscow1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYLYA SOVETOV · PPG 1.55

CSKA MOSCOW · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.55) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Krylya Sovetov (H) 30.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +24.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.0%

CSKA Moscow (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krylya Sovetov face CSKA Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krylya Sovetov a 30% chance, the draw 25% and CSKA Moscow 45%, so CSKA Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Krylya Sovetov and 1.6 for CSKA Moscow (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krylya Sovetov are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.17 for CSKA Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Krylya Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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