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Reichenau vs TSV St. Johann Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 28 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:30

Reichenau

PPG 1.58 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

TSV St. Johann

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.7%0-23.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.7%1-110.3%1-27.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.2%3-15.7%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.9%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% — — —

Draw 26.2% — — —

Away win 25.7% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 38.9% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0✓ 7.0%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reichenau1.8

TSV St. Johann1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REICHENAU · PPG 1.58

TSV ST. JOHANN · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.58) vs P(Home)=48.1%

Win probability 1X2

Reichenau (H) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TSV St. Johann (A) 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Reichenau face TSV St. Johann in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reichenau a 48% chance, the draw 26% and TSV St. Johann 26%, so Reichenau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Reichenau and 1.3 for TSV St. Johann (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reichenau are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.73 for TSV St. Johann. This match finished 2-0.

Reichenau vs TSV St. Johann Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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