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Mamelodi S. vs Kaizer Chiefs Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 27 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 17:30

Mamelodi S.

PPG 2.69 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Kaizer Chiefs

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.3%0-110.5%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.6%1-111.8%1-23.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-16.6%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.5%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 66.7% 1.50 -29.9%

Draw 31.8% 26.3% 3.80 +20.8%

Away win 21.5% 13.7% 7.30 +34.2%

Over 2.5 35.1% 43.5% 2.30 -19.3%

Over 3.5 9.3% 23.1% 4.33 -35.8%

BTTS 45.9% 42.6% 2.35 +7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.3%

#2 1–0 20.6%

#3 1–1✓ 11.8%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mamelodi S.1.1

Kaizer Chiefs0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 9.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MAMELODI S. · PPG 2.69

KAIZER CHIEFS · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.69) vs P(Home)=46.7%

Win probability 1X2

Mamelodi S. (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -29.9%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +20.8%

Kaizer Chiefs (A) 21.5%

ODDS 7.30 · IMPLIED 13.7% EV +34.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mamelodi S. face Kaizer Chiefs in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mamelodi S. a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Kaizer Chiefs 22%, so Mamelodi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mamelodi S. and 0.6 for Kaizer Chiefs (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mamelodi S. are averaging 2.69 points per game versus 1.83 for Kaizer Chiefs. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Mamelodi S. vs Kaizer Chiefs Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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