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Taborsko vs Chrudim Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 27 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 16:00

Taborsko

PPG 1.85 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chrudim

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.1%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.0%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.2%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-16.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 62.5% 1.60 -15.2%

Draw 24.5% 26.3% 3.80 -4.1%

Away win 22.4% 21.1% 4.75 +3.8%

Over 2.5 60.2% 56.5% 1.77 +6.6%

Over 3.5 38.1% 33.3% 3.00 +14.3%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 10.5%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Taborsko2.2

Chrudim0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TABORSKO · PPG 1.85

CHRUDIM · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.85) vs P(Home)=53.0%

Win probability 1X2

Taborsko (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -15.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.1%

Chrudim (A) 22.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Taborsko face Chrudim in Czech-Republic - FNL on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Taborsko a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Chrudim 22%, so Taborsko are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Taborsko and 0.9 for Chrudim (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Taborsko are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 0.77 for Chrudim. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Taborsko vs Chrudim Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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