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Orenburg vs Lokomotiv M. Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 09:00

Orenburg

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lokomotiv M.

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.6%0-26.2%0-33.9%0-4+2.8%1 1-05.1%1-19.7%1-29.1%1-35.7%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.1%2-26.7%2-34.2%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.9%3-13.5%3-23.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 31.1% 3.22 -2.1%

Draw 22.3% 25.8% 3.88 -13.5%

Away win 47.3% 46.5% 2.15 +1.7%

Over 2.5 65.2% 61.3% 1.63 +6.3%

Over 3.5 43.2% 40.8% 2.45 +5.8%

BTTS 65.4% 66.2% 1.51 -1.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob65.4%

A 47% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–1✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orenburg1.5

Lokomotiv M.1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENBURG · PPG 1.17

LOKOMOTIV M. · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

66%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.58)

Win probability 1X2

Orenburg (H) 30.4%

ODDS 3.22 · IMPLIED 31.1% EV -2.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.88 · IMPLIED 25.8% EV -13.5%

Lokomotiv M. (A) 47.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orenburg face Lokomotiv M. in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orenburg a 30% chance, the draw 22% and Lokomotiv M. 47%, so Lokomotiv M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Orenburg and 1.9 for Lokomotiv M. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orenburg are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.58 for Lokomotiv M.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Orenburg vs Lokomotiv M. Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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