Today / Portugal - Primeira Liga / Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente

Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:30

Rio Ave

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gil Vicente

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-111.1%0-28.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.5%2-16.7%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 27.0% 3.70 -4.2%

Draw 29.4% 29.0% 3.45 +1.4%

Away win 44.7% 51.3% 1.95 -12.8%

Over 2.5 48.4% 51.8% 1.93 -6.6%

Over 3.5 26.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.9%

BTTS 53.8% 56.5% 1.77 -4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.8%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–0✓ 7.4%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rio Ave1.1

Gil Vicente1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RIO AVE · PPG 0.93

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.93) vs Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Rio Ave (H) 25.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.2%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +1.4%

Gil Vicente (A) 44.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rio Ave face Gil Vicente in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rio Ave a 26% chance, the draw 29% and Gil Vicente 45%, so Gil Vicente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rio Ave and 1.5 for Gil Vicente (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rio Ave are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.27 for Gil Vicente. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Primeira Liga Predictions