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Chojniczanka vs O. Grudziadz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:30

Chojniczanka

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

O. Grudziadz

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.9%0-25.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.3%1-110.5%1-28.7%1-34.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.0%2-26.6%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.4%3-14.0%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 41.7% 2.40 -19.4%

Draw 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -17.5%

Away win 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 59.9% 1.67 +3.0%

Over 3.5 39.4% 38.2% 2.62 +3.2%

BTTS 64.9% 65.4% 1.53 -0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.9%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2✓ 6.6%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chojniczanka1.5

O. Grudziadz1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHOJNICZANKA · PPG 1.29

O. GRUDZIADZ · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Chojniczanka (H) 33.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.5%

O. Grudziadz (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chojniczanka face O. Grudziadz in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chojniczanka a 34% chance, the draw 27% and O. Grudziadz 40%, so O. Grudziadz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chojniczanka and 1.7 for O. Grudziadz (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chojniczanka are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.50 for O. Grudziadz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Chojniczanka vs O. Grudziadz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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