Chojniczanka vs O. Grudziadz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Poland - II Liga - East Regular Season - 30 Stadion Miejski Chojniczanka 1930· Chojnice Sunday, May 3, 2026 17:30

Chojniczanka PPG 1.29

2-2 HIT CS4

O. Grudziadz PPG 1.50

Over3.5· +3.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Chojniczanka face O. Grudziadz in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chojniczanka a 34% chance, the draw 27% and O. Grudziadz 40%, so O. Grudziadz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chojniczanka and 1.7 for O. Grudziadz (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chojniczanka are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.50 for O. Grudziadz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.6%

Odds: 2.40 EV: -19.4%

Draw 26.6%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -17.5%

Away 39.9%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -0.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.7% Odds: 1.67 +3.0%

Over 3.5 39.4% Odds: 2.62 +3.2%

BTTS 64.9% Odds: 1.53 -0.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✔

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Chojniczanka

1.52

O. Grudziadz

1.67

Model SuggestionBTTS -0.7% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.7%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 23.1%

Bet Hit 71% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away GOOD (1.50)