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Podbrezova vs Spartak Trnava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 8 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:00

Podbrezova

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Spartak Trnava

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.7%0-25.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.9%1-110.7%1-28.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 29.4% 3.40 +28.2%

Draw 26.9% 27.4% 3.65 -1.8%

Away win 35.4% 51.8% 1.93 -31.7%

Over 2.5 60.7% 57.8% 1.73 +5.0%

Over 3.5 38.4% 35.7% 2.80 +7.5%

BTTS 64.3% 62.5% 1.60 +2.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 38% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Podbrezova1.6

Spartak Trnava1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PODBREZOVA · PPG 1.57

SPARTAK TRNAVA · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Podbrezova (H) 37.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +28.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.8%

Spartak Trnava (A) 35.4%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -31.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Podbrezova face Spartak Trnava in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Podbrezova a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Spartak Trnava 35%, so Podbrezova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Podbrezova and 1.5 for Spartak Trnava (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Podbrezova are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.57 for Spartak Trnava. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Podbrezova vs Spartak Trnava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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