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Sporting Braga vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:00

Sporting Braga

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Estoril

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.5%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.8%1-19.4%1-25.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.8%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.8%4+-23.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 58.8% 1.70 -4.1%

Draw 23.7% 26.0% 3.85 -8.8%

Away win 19.9% 22.2% 4.50 -10.4%

Over 2.5 63.8% 61.7% 1.62 +3.4%

Over 3.5 41.6% 39.2% 2.55 +6.1%

BTTS 62.6% 62.5% 1.60 +0.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.6%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Braga2.1

Estoril1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING BRAGA · PPG 1.87

ESTORIL · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=56.4%

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Braga (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -4.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.8%

Estoril (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Braga face Estoril in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Braga a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Estoril 20%, so Sporting Braga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sporting Braga and 1.2 for Estoril (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Braga are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.93 for Estoril. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Sporting Braga vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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