Akhmat Grozny vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Russia - Premier League Regular Season - 28 Akhmat-Arena· Groznyj Sunday, May 3, 2026 16:30

Akhmat Grozny PPG 1.77

2-0 HIT CS3

Nizhny Novgorod PPG 0.54

Draw· +4.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Akhmat Grozny face Nizhny Novgorod in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akhmat Grozny a 51% chance, the draw 29% and Nizhny Novgorod 21%, so Akhmat Grozny are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Akhmat Grozny and 0.9 for Nizhny Novgorod (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akhmat Grozny are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.54 for Nizhny Novgorod. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.7%

Odds: 1.92 EV: -2.7%

Draw 28.8%

Odds: 3.64 EV: +4.8%

Away 20.5%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -13.9%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.9% Odds: 2.03 -6.8%

Over 3.5 24.5% Odds: 3.35 -17.9%

BTTS 49.9% Odds: 1.83 -8.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✔

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Akhmat Grozny

1.58

Nizhny Novgorod

0.93

Model SuggestionHome -2.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -2.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+4.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.77) vs P(Home)=50.7%