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Akhmat Grozny vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:30

Akhmat Grozny

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nizhny Novgorod

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

Home 52% chance

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.6%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.8%1-111.9%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.4%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-15.0%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 52.1% 1.92 -2.7%

Draw 28.8% 27.5% 3.64 +4.8%

Away win 20.5% 23.8% 4.20 -13.9%

Over 2.5 45.9% 49.3% 2.03 -6.8%

Over 3.5 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -17.9%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0✓ 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akhmat Grozny1.6

Nizhny Novgorod0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AKHMAT GROZNY · PPG 1.77

NIZHNY NOVGOROD · PPG 0.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

52%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.77) vs P(Home)=50.7%

Win probability 1X2

Akhmat Grozny (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -2.7%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.64 · IMPLIED 27.5% EV +4.8%

Nizhny Novgorod (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akhmat Grozny face Nizhny Novgorod in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akhmat Grozny a 51% chance, the draw 29% and Nizhny Novgorod 21%, so Akhmat Grozny are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Akhmat Grozny and 0.9 for Nizhny Novgorod (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akhmat Grozny are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.54 for Nizhny Novgorod. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Akhmat Grozny vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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