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Budaiya vs Khalidiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:00

Budaiya

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Khalidiya

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-113.0%0-211.4%0-36.7%0-4+4.4%1 1-06.3%1-111.0%1-29.7%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-02.7%2-14.7%2-24.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.1% 8.3% 12.00 +93.2%

Draw 26.6% 19.6% 5.10 +35.7%

Away win 57.3% 82.0% 1.22 -30.1%

Over 2.5 48.2% 59.9% 1.67 -19.5%

Over 3.5 26.4% 38.2% 2.62 -30.8%

BTTS 48.9% 45.5% 2.20 +7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.9%

A 57% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 0–2 11.4%

#3 0–1✓ 13.0%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Budaiya0.8

Khalidiya1.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BUDAIYA · PPG 0.67

KHALIDIYA · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Budaiya (H) 16.1%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +93.2%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +35.7%

Khalidiya (A) 57.3%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Budaiya face Khalidiya in Bahrain - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Budaiya a 16% chance, the draw 27% and Khalidiya 57%, so Khalidiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Budaiya and 1.8 for Khalidiya (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Budaiya are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 3.00 for Khalidiya. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +93.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Budaiya vs Khalidiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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