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Bahrain SC vs Malkiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:00

Bahrain SC

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Malkiya

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-115.4%0-211.8%0-36.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.7%1-111.8%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.0%2-14.5%2-23.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.8%3-11.2%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.9% 16.1% 6.20 +4.8%

Draw 29.4% 25.6% 3.90 +14.7%

Away win 53.7% 67.6% 1.48 -20.5%

Over 2.5 40.3% 51.3% 1.95 -21.4%

Over 3.5 20.0% 29.0% 3.45 -31.0%

BTTS 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob43.7%

A 54% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.4%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 0–2 11.8%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahrain SC0.8

Malkiya1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHRAIN SC · PPG 0.67

MALKIYA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Bahrain SC (H) 16.9%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +4.8%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +14.7%

Malkiya (A) 53.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahrain SC face Malkiya in Bahrain - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahrain SC a 17% chance, the draw 29% and Malkiya 54%, so Malkiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Bahrain SC and 1.5 for Malkiya (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahrain SC are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.67 for Malkiya. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 0-4.

Bahrain SC vs Malkiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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