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Trencin vs Komarno Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

Trencin

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Komarno

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-110.5%0-26.2%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-113.0%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-18.0%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.8%3-13.3%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 36.5% 2.74 -2.2%

Draw 31.5% 29.9% 3.35 +5.5%

Away win 32.9% 42.7% 2.34 -23.0%

Over 2.5 43.4% 50.0% 2.00 -13.2%

Over 3.5 22.4% 27.8% 3.60 -19.4%

BTTS 51.1% 56.5% 1.77 -9.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.1%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trencin1.2

Komarno1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TRENCIN · PPG 1.21

KOMARNO · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.21), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Trencin (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -2.2%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +5.5%

Komarno (A) 32.9%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trencin face Komarno in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trencin a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Komarno 33%, so Trencin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Trencin and 1.2 for Komarno (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trencin are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.93 for Komarno. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Trencin vs Komarno Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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