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Chrobry Glogow vs Tychy Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

Chrobry Glogow

PPG 1.60 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tychy

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+27.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.2%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.8%1-110.2%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.5%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 46.5% 2.15 +27.5%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -20.4%

Away win 16.2% 34.5% 2.90 -53.0%

Over 2.5 55.3% 51.3% 1.95 +7.8%

Over 3.5 33.0% 30.8% 3.25 +7.2%

BTTS 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.0%

H 59% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chrobry Glogow2.0

Tychy0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHROBRY GLOGOW · PPG 1.60

TYCHY · PPG 0.73

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=59.3%

Win probability 1X2

Chrobry Glogow (H) 59.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +27.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -20.4%

Tychy (A) 16.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -53.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chrobry Glogow face Tychy in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chrobry Glogow a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Tychy 16%, so Chrobry Glogow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Chrobry Glogow and 0.9 for Tychy (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chrobry Glogow are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.73 for Tychy. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Chrobry Glogow vs Tychy Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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