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Sparta vs Go Ahead Eagles Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:45

Sparta

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Go Ahead Eagles

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.2%0-26.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.7%1-111.6%1-28.6%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.1%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.5%3-13.8%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 49.0% 2.04 -31.1%

Draw 28.2% 25.3% 3.95 +11.4%

Away win 38.0% 32.3% 3.10 +17.8%

Over 2.5 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Over 3.5 33.1% 44.4% 2.25 -25.5%

BTTS 60.3% 69.0% 1.45 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.3%

D 28% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta1.4

Go Ahead Eagles1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA · PPG 1.47

GO AHEAD EAGLES · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Sparta (H) 33.8%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -31.1%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +11.4%

Go Ahead Eagles (A) 38.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta face Go Ahead Eagles in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Go Ahead Eagles 38%, so Go Ahead Eagles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sparta and 1.5 for Go Ahead Eagles (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.80 for Go Ahead Eagles. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Sparta vs Go Ahead Eagles Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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