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Lugano vs BSC Young Boys Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:30

Lugano

PPG 2.06 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

BSC Young Boys

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.7%0-23.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.8%1-19.4%1-26.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.5%3-16.2%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.9%4+-23.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 44.4% 2.25 +12.5%

Draw 24.6% 26.7% 3.75 -7.8%

Away win 25.4% 36.4% 2.75 -30.1%

Over 2.5 65.6% 66.7% 1.50 -1.6%

Over 3.5 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

BTTS 66.3% 70.4% 1.42 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob66.3%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano2.0

BSC Young Boys1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO · PPG 2.06

BSC YOUNG BOYS · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=50.0%

Win probability 1X2

Lugano (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +12.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.8%

BSC Young Boys (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano face BSC Young Boys in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano a 50% chance, the draw 25% and BSC Young Boys 25%, so Lugano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lugano and 1.4 for BSC Young Boys (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.18 for BSC Young Boys. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Lugano vs BSC Young Boys Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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