Casa Pia vs Tondela Prediction & Tips

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Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 32 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior· Rio Maior Sunday, May 3, 2026 14:30

Casa Pia PPG 0.93

0-1 MISS

Tondela PPG 0.80

Over2.5· +0.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.3%

Odds: 2.28 EV: -3.6%

Draw 30.1%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -5.2%

Away 27.6%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -13.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.7% Odds: 2.15 +0.4%

Over 3.5 25.1% Odds: 4.00 +0.4%

BTTS 53.0% Odds: 1.85 -1.9%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Casa Pia

1.43

Tondela

1.11

Model SuggestionBTTS -1.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -1.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+0.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.80)