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Casa Pia vs Tondela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:30

Casa Pia

PPG 0.93 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tondela

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.8%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.5%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.9%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.3%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 43.9% 2.28 -3.6%

Draw 30.1% 31.7% 3.15 -5.2%

Away win 27.6% 31.7% 3.15 -13.1%

Over 2.5 46.7% 46.5% 2.15 +0.4%

Over 3.5 25.1% 25.0% 4.00 +0.4%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casa Pia1.4

Tondela1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CASA PIA · PPG 0.93

TONDELA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Casa Pia (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -3.6%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.2%

Tondela (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casa Pia face Tondela in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casa Pia a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Tondela 28%, so Casa Pia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Casa Pia and 1.1 for Tondela (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casa Pia are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.80 for Tondela. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Casa Pia vs Tondela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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