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Akron vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Akron

PPG 0.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Away 63% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-110.9%0-210.1%0-36.2%0-4+4.3%1 1-05.9%1-110.8%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.9%2-15.3%2-24.9%2-33.0%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.7%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.3% 16.1% 6.20 +13.5%

Draw 25.9% 21.5% 4.65 +20.4%

Away win 55.8% 65.8% 1.52 -15.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 59.9% 1.67 -10.7%

Over 3.5 31.3% 39.5% 2.53 -20.8%

BTTS 54.2% 57.5% 1.74 -5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.2%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 0–2 10.1%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1✓ 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akron1.0

FC Krasnodar1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AKRON · PPG 0.77

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Akron (H) 18.3%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +13.5%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +20.4%

FC Krasnodar (A) 55.8%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akron face FC Krasnodar in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akron a 18% chance, the draw 26% and FC Krasnodar 56%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Akron and 1.8 for FC Krasnodar (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akron are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 2.00 for FC Krasnodar. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Akron vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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