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USD Casatese vs Pavia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

USD Casatese

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pavia

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+19.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-15.5%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.3%1-110.1%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.4%3-15.5%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-13.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.2% 54.6% 1.83 +19.3%

Draw 21.9% 30.8% 3.25 -28.8%

Away win 12.8% 26.3% 3.80 -51.4%

Over 2.5 44.9% 50.0% 2.00 -10.2%

Over 3.5 23.6% — — —

BTTS 40.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob40.3%

H 65% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.3%

#2 2–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

USD Casatese1.8

Pavia0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

USD CASATESE · PPG 1.53

PAVIA · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

USD Casatese (H) 65.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +19.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -28.8%

Pavia (A) 12.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -51.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

USD Casatese face Pavia in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives USD Casatese a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Pavia 13%, so USD Casatese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for USD Casatese and 0.7 for Pavia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, USD Casatese are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.13 for Pavia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 1-0.

USD Casatese vs Pavia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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