USD Casatese vs Pavia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Italy - Serie D - Girone B Group B - 32 Campo Sportivo Comunale· Casatenovo Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

USD Casatese PPG 1.53

1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Pavia PPG 1.13

Home· +19.3% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

USD Casatese face Pavia in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives USD Casatese a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Pavia 13%, so USD Casatese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for USD Casatese and 0.7 for Pavia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, USD Casatese are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.13 for Pavia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 65.2%

Odds: 1.83 EV: +19.3%

Draw 21.9%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -28.8%

Away 12.8%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -51.4%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.9% Odds: 2.00 -10.2%

Over 3.5 23.6% Odds: — —

BTTS 40.3% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✔

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

USD Casatese

1.81

Pavia

0.66

Model SuggestionHome +19.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 75%

Score Hit 33%

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)