Chievo vs Castellanzese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Italy - Serie D - Girone B Group B - 32 Sinergy Stadium· Verona Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Chievo PPG 1.73

2-2 MISS

Castellanzese PPG 0.93

Away· +9.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Chievo face Castellanzese in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chievo a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Castellanzese 27%, so Chievo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chievo and 1.0 for Castellanzese (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chievo are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.93 for Castellanzese. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 47.1%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -18.5%

Draw 26.1%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -11.3%

Away 26.8%

Odds: 4.10 EV: +9.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.3% Odds: 1.85 -14.3%

Over 3.5 24.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 50.2% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Chievo

1.48

Castellanzese

1.05

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+9.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 75%

Score Hit 33%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away POOR (0.93)