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Chievo vs Castellanzese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Chievo

PPG 1.73 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Castellanzese

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away POOR (0.93)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.4%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.8%1-112.4%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.2%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.3%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 57.8% 1.73 -18.5%

Draw 26.1% 29.4% 3.40 -11.3%

Away win 26.8% 24.4% 4.10 +9.9%

Over 2.5 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Over 3.5 24.9% — — —

BTTS 50.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.2%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chievo1.5

Castellanzese1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIEVO · PPG 1.73

CASTELLANZESE · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Chievo (H) 47.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -18.5%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.3%

Castellanzese (A) 26.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chievo face Castellanzese in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chievo a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Castellanzese 27%, so Chievo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chievo and 1.0 for Castellanzese (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chievo are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.93 for Castellanzese. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Chievo vs Castellanzese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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