Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone B / AC Milan B vs Varesina

AC Milan B vs Varesina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

AC Milan B

PPG 1.53 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Varesina

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.2%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-110.9%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.8%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 54.1% 1.85 +10.1%

Draw 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -21.5%

Away win 17.4% 28.6% 3.50 -39.1%

Over 2.5 48.0% 52.6% 1.90 -8.8%

Over 3.5 26.3% — — —

BTTS 46.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.8%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.2%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Milan B1.8

Varesina0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AC MILAN B · PPG 1.53

VARESINA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

AC Milan B (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +10.1%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.5%

Varesina (A) 17.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -39.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Milan B face Varesina in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Milan B a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Varesina 17%, so AC Milan B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AC Milan B and 0.8 for Varesina (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Milan B are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.40 for Varesina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 0-1.

AC Milan B vs Varesina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone B Predictions