AC Milan B vs Varesina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Italy - Serie D - Girone B Group B - 32 Stadio Felice Chinetti· Solbiate Arno Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

AC Milan B PPG 1.53

0-1 MISS

Varesina PPG 1.40

Home· +10.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Milan B face Varesina in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Milan B a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Varesina 17%, so AC Milan B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AC Milan B and 0.8 for Varesina (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Milan B are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.40 for Varesina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.5%

Odds: 1.85 EV: +10.1%

Draw 23.1%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -21.5%

Away 17.4%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -39.1%

Model lean: Home

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.0% Odds: 1.90 -8.8%

Over 3.5 26.3% Odds: — —

BTTS 46.8% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

AC Milan B

1.76

Varesina

0.83

Model SuggestionHome +10.1% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.40)