Villa Alme vs Oltrepo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Italy - Serie D - Girone B Group B - 33 Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè· Villa D'Almè Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Villa Alme PPG 1.81

1-3 MISS

Oltrepo PPG 1.81

Draw· -0.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Alme face Oltrepo in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Alme a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Oltrepo 28%, so Villa Alme are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Villa Alme and 0.9 for Oltrepo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Alme are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.81 for Oltrepo. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.9%

Odds: 2.15 EV: -16.4%

Draw 33.6%

Odds: 2.95 EV: -0.9%

Away 27.5%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -14.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: 2.20 -2.3%

Over 3.5 17.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 50.2% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Villa Alme

1.24

Oltrepo

0.93

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.81), Away GOOD (1.81)