Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone B / Villa Alme vs Oltrepo

Villa Alme vs Oltrepo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Villa Alme

PPG 1.81 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oltrepo

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.81), Away GOOD (1.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-110.6%0-24.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-113.2%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-18.2%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.6%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 46.5% 2.15 -16.4%

Draw 33.6% 33.9% 2.95 -0.9%

Away win 27.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Over 2.5 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

Over 3.5 17.5% — — —

BTTS 50.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.2%

H 39% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Alme1.2

Oltrepo0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA ALME · PPG 1.81

OLTREPO · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.81), Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Villa Alme (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -16.4%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -0.9%

Oltrepo (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Alme face Oltrepo in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Alme a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Oltrepo 28%, so Villa Alme are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Villa Alme and 0.9 for Oltrepo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Alme are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.81 for Oltrepo. This match finished 1-3.

Villa Alme vs Oltrepo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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