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Caldiero Terme vs Villa Alme Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Italy - Serie D - Girone B logo Italy flag Italy - Serie D - Girone B Group B - 32 Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini· Verona Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00
Caldiero Terme logo Caldiero Terme PPG 1.33
1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Villa Alme logo Villa Alme PPG 1.00
Home· +15.3% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Caldiero Terme face Villa Alme in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caldiero Terme a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Villa Alme 22%, so Caldiero Terme are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Caldiero Terme and 1.0 for Villa Alme (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caldiero Terme are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Villa Alme. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.9%
Odds: 2.10 EV: +15.3%
Draw 23.3%
Odds: 3.25 EV: -24.3%
Away 21.8%
Odds: 3.00 EV: -34.6%
Model lean: Home
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.2% Odds: 2.00 +6.4%
Over 3.5 30.9% Odds: —
BTTS 53.4% Odds: —
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-0
3rd 2-1
4th 2-0
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Caldiero Terme
1.78
Villa Alme
1.03

Model Suggestion

Home +15.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

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