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Caldiero Terme vs Villa Alme Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Caldiero Terme

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Villa Alme

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+15.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.2%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.1%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 47.6% 2.10 +15.3%

Draw 23.3% 30.8% 3.25 -24.3%

Away win 21.8% 33.3% 3.00 -34.6%

Over 2.5 53.2% 50.0% 2.00 +6.4%

Over 3.5 30.9% — — —

BTTS 53.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.4%

H 55% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.1%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caldiero Terme1.8

Villa Alme1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CALDIERO TERME · PPG 1.33

VILLA ALME · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Caldiero Terme (H) 54.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +15.3%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -24.3%

Villa Alme (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -34.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caldiero Terme face Villa Alme in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caldiero Terme a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Villa Alme 22%, so Caldiero Terme are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Caldiero Terme and 1.0 for Villa Alme (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caldiero Terme are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Villa Alme. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Caldiero Terme vs Villa Alme Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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