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Ruch Chorzow vs Odra Opole Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:30

Ruch Chorzow

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Odra Opole

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.5%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.9%1-112.4%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.1%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 57.1% 1.75 -21.6%

Draw 30.0% 30.8% 3.25 -2.5%

Away win 25.2% 23.8% 4.20 +5.8%

Over 2.5 46.0% 48.8% 2.05 -5.7%

Over 3.5 24.5% 26.7% 3.75 -8.1%

BTTS 51.8% 54.1% 1.85 -4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.8%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 0–0 8.1%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ruch Chorzow1.5

Odra Opole1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RUCH CHORZOW · PPG 1.75

ODRA OPOLE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ruch Chorzow (H) 44.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.6%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.5%

Odra Opole (A) 25.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ruch Chorzow face Odra Opole in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ruch Chorzow a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Odra Opole 25%, so Ruch Chorzow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ruch Chorzow and 1.0 for Odra Opole (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ruch Chorzow are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Odra Opole. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Ruch Chorzow vs Odra Opole Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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