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PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Almelo Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:30

PEC Zwolle

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Heracles Almelo

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.8%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.4%1-18.5%1-25.6%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.3%3-17.0%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-16.5%4+-24.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 69.0% 1.45 -18.2%

Draw 22.6% 21.5% 4.65 +5.1%

Away win 20.9% 16.7% 6.00 +25.4%

Over 2.5 68.7% 67.6% 1.48 +1.7%

Over 3.5 47.3% 45.5% 2.20 +4.1%

BTTS 66.7% 62.5% 1.60 +6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob66.7%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEC Zwolle2.2

Heracles Almelo1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PEC ZWOLLE · PPG 1.67

HERACLES ALMELO · PPG 0.27

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

68%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=56.4%

Win probability 1X2

PEC Zwolle (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -18.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +5.1%

Heracles Almelo (A) 20.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEC Zwolle face Heracles Almelo in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEC Zwolle a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Heracles Almelo 21%, so PEC Zwolle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for PEC Zwolle and 1.3 for Heracles Almelo (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.27 for Heracles Almelo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 1-0.

PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Almelo Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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