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Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:30

Fortuna Sittard

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Feyenoord

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.3%0-26.1%0-33.9%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.8%1-19.4%1-29.1%1-35.8%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-17.0%2-26.8%2-34.4%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 18.2% 5.50 +56.8%

Draw 24.8% 21.5% 4.65 +15.3%

Away win 46.7% 67.6% 1.48 -30.9%

Over 2.5 66.6% 66.7% 1.50 -0.1%

Over 3.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

BTTS 67.8% 62.5% 1.60 +8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob67.8%

A 47% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2✓ 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortuna Sittard1.5

Feyenoord1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.6% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTUNA SITTARD · PPG 1.47

FEYENOORD · PPG 1.53

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Fortuna Sittard (H) 28.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +56.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +15.3%

Feyenoord (A) 46.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortuna Sittard face Feyenoord in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortuna Sittard a 28% chance, the draw 25% and Feyenoord 47%, so Feyenoord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.9 for Feyenoord (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.53 for Feyenoord. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +56.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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