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Wolfsburg B W vs Mainz 05 W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Wolfsburg B W

PPG 0.55 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mainz 05 W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.8%0-24.7%0-35.2%0-4+10.1%1 1-01.2%1-14.1%1-26.8%1-37.5%1-4+14.5%2 2-00.9%2-12.9%2-24.9%2-35.4%2-4+10.4%3 3-00.4%3-11.4%3-22.3%3-32.6%3-4+5.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.3% — — —

Draw 14.6% — — —

Away win 73.1% — — —

Over 2.5 85.4% — — —

Over 3.5 70.0% — — —

BTTS 74.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob74.2%

A 73% / xG 1.4-3.3 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3✓ 7.5%

#2 1–2 6.8%

#3 1–4 6.2%

#4 2–3 5.4%

#5 0–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wolfsburg B W1.4

Mainz 05 W3.3

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 85.4% · O3.5 PROB 70.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLFSBURG B W · PPG 0.55

MAINZ 05 W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.55)

Win probability 1X2

Wolfsburg B W (H) 12.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mainz 05 W (A) 73.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Wolfsburg B W face Mainz 05 W in Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wolfsburg B W a 12% chance, the draw 15% and Mainz 05 W 73%, so Mainz 05 W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wolfsburg B W and 3.3 for Mainz 05 W (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wolfsburg B W are averaging 0.55 points per game versus 2.00 for Mainz 05 W. This match finished 1-3.

Wolfsburg B W vs Mainz 05 W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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