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Warbeyen W vs Mainz 05 W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Warbeyen W

PPG 0.25 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Mainz 05 W

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 6.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-11.2%0-23.1%0-35.3%0-4+29.7%1 1-00.2%1-11.1%1-22.9%1-34.9%1-4+27.5%2 2-00.1%2-10.5%2-21.3%2-32.3%2-4+12.7%3 3-00.0%3-10.2%3-20.4%3-30.7%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.5% — — —

Draw 18.7% — — —

Away win 71.8% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 85.1% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)5.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 72% / xG 0.9-5.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–5✓ 7.0%

#2 0–4 6.8%

#3 1–5 6.4%

#4 1–4 6.3%

#5 0–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warbeyen W0.9

Mainz 05 W5.1

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 85.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WARBEYEN W · PPG 0.25

MAINZ 05 W · PPG 2.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.08) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Warbeyen W (H) 9.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mainz 05 W (A) 71.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Warbeyen W face Mainz 05 W in Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warbeyen W a 10% chance, the draw 19% and Mainz 05 W 72%, so Mainz 05 W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Warbeyen W and 5.1 for Mainz 05 W (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-5. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warbeyen W are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 2.08 for Mainz 05 W. This match finished 0-5.

Warbeyen W vs Mainz 05 W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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